Forecasting Meta Stock 3 Months Ahead Until April 30th, 2023.

I have been watching Meta closely since its sharp drop on February 2nd, 2022, and anxiously expecting its recovery. This February 2nd, 2023 Meta was one of the very top High Gainers in the market. Decided to forecast Meta for the coming 3 months (February 2nd, 2023 up to April 30th, 2023) just as a technical exercise. In Figure 1, the blue light cloud is a density plot of the “Actual” values while the blue dots are the “Forecasts”. The y-axis is the “Close ($)“ value of the stock but “Min-Max Normalized”. The Normalization was necessary for the “Forecasting system” and I did not turn it back to $ (but I could have). On March 8th, 2023, the “Forecasts” peaked at about 65% of the maximum close value of Meta ($382.18 on 9/7/2021). Figure 2 shows the Relative Strength Index, which is my personal favorite economic indicator to read a stock value.

Fig.1 Meta Stock Forecast

Fig.2 Meta Forecasting plot (upper) and RSI Forecasting (lower).

There is a lot of elaboration on the methodology, assumptions, and limitations of my approach coming up in future posts. Just wanted to make a quick and compact report. Thank you for your time and interest. Please leave comments if you want more details.